Evaluation of seasonal teleconnections to remote drivers of Australian rainfall in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

This study describes how coupled climate models participating in the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate primary drivers that affect Australian climate, and their seasonal relationship to rainfall, namely El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Southern Annular Mode (SAM). As results from earlier generation (CMIP5) are still use, CMIP6 multi-model mean teleconnections between rainfall compared CMIP5. Collectively, an improvement is found relative CMIP5 representation ENSO IOD events Australia’s springtime rainfall. Overall, also able reproduce asymmetric eastern which exhibits a more robust signal during La Niña than Niño years. Both generally capture stronger Central Pacific Niñas, Eastern Niñas. However, large spread model-to-model behaviour, among ensemble members, remains source uncertainty. Although have improved SAM variability, simulated has not materially improved. Additionally, this accompanied by extensive Appendix each model’s ENSO, teleconnection patterns presented ranked.